Being Safe on Halloween

If you have kids, you probably have been dealing with them planning their Halloween costume since last April. Unfortunately, this years, we’re forecast to have a bit of rain. So don’t hesitate to recommend wearing a sweater under that costume, otherwise, it will be a short trip out, and then just as quickly, they will be begging to go back out since they don’t want to miss out.

Keeping Your Trick or Treater Safe and Happy

Make rule number one that everyone has to walk, not run. Rule number two is to stay together. Rule number three is no eating any candy until you get home and let a responsible adult look through the candy. If they cannot follow these rules, then you will take them home right away.  And then follow through.  These three are probably the most important rules.

Make sure the child has eaten a healthy meal and uses the bathroom before getting into their costume.  Nothing brings tears faster then a costume that got grease or tomato stains before everyone can see them in it.

Have each child carry something that lights up such as a lantern, glow bracelets or light up shoes.

Do not cross the street between cars.  Try to stick to well lit corners and crosswalks.  If this isn’t possible in your neighborhood, stay together, be very aware of cars, and cross in a group.

Plan your route in advance and review it in the daylight for potential hazards. Sometimes, the street gets torn up, or there’s a sidewalk that has been pushed up because of a tree root. Additionally, consider working out with a neighbor having a “bathroom break” along the way if you intend to be out for more than an hour.

Be in a familiar area. Some kids prefer to go to neighborhoods where there are more houses rather then apartments because some people with houses convert their garages into haunted houses. And that is a lot more fun. But again, check the area in daylight first.

Avoid costumes that drag on the ground as they could trip a child, or get caught on bushes.

Pick costumes that are bathroom friendly.

Make sure any mask allows full visibility and breathing. Don’t hesitate to cut larger holes if needed.

Only carry flexible props that won’t cause injury if the child accidentally falls on it.

Only trick or treat at houses that are lit (or are obviously creepily lit for atmosphere). If the house has off porch lights, the residents do not want to participate, and the kids should respect that.

Keep track of time, and don’t trick or treat after 9pm, unless your neighborhood has a special understanding.

Keeping Everyone Safe

If you don’t have kids but enjoy passing out candy and being delighted by the costumes, here are some tips for making it safer for them to visit your home.

Ensure that you have a well lit door, and make the house appear inviting.

Clear the walkways of debris and other objects. Also, consider moving hoses, flower pots, extension cords, etc. out of the way.

Provide packaged candy rather then homemade treats.  Most parents will  not let their children keep anything that looks homemade or tampered with.

Secure your pets. You don’t want Fluffy running outside, and kids certainly don’t want an animal running at them.

Two Final Thoughts

First, no matter what, drive slowly through neighborhoods.  Don’t be in a hurry.  Also, if you’re an adult going to an adult party, ensure that you have a designated driver.

Second, do consider looking into safe trick or treating events that towns and shopping malls host.  It could be a better and safer experience if your neighborhood isn’t the best for trick or treating.

What was your favorite Halloween costume?

This Week's Market Commentary

This week has an active agenda with seven economic reports scheduled for release that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. There is at least one relevant report scheduled each day this week, making it likely to be an active one for the financial and mortgage markets.

The first release of the week will come Monday at 8:30 AM ET when September's Personal Income and Outlays report will be posted. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.6% increase in income and a 0.4% rise in spending. Smaller than expected increases in both readings would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing.

October's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is Tuesday's only news. This Conference Board index will be released at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend and is expected to show a small increase in confidence from last month's 70.3 reading. That would mean that consumers felt a little better about their own financial situations than last month, indicating they are more likely to make large purchases in the near future. As long as the reading doesn't exceed the forecasted 72.5, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because it is related to consumer spending.

The 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday. This data tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits, giving us an indication of wage inflation pressures. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.5%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for mortgage rates, but this is not one of the more important reports of the week. Therefore, it will likely take a large variance from forecasts for this report of have a noticeable influence on mortgage pricing.

Thursday has two relevant economic reports scheduled for release. The first is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show a 1.6% increase in worker productivity during the third quarter. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because higher levels of employee productivity allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The key data of the day and one of the two highly important reports of the week will be the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment, which is important because it gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is considered to be one of the more important reports we see each month, partly because it is the first report every month that tracks the preceding month’s activity. Thursday's release is expected to show a reading of 51.0, indicating that manufacturer sentiment slipped from September's level. This means fewer surveyed business executives felt business improved during the month than in September, hinting at manufacturing sector weakness. A smaller than expected reading would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates, especially if it falls below the benchmark 50.0.

Friday brings us the release of two pieces of economic data, one of which is arguably the single most important monthly report. The Labor Department will post October's Employment report early Friday morning. This report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for the unemployment rate to move higher by 0.1% to 7.9%, an increase in payrolls of approximately 125,000 and a 0.2% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should renew concerns about the labor market and rally bonds enough to improve mortgage rates, especially if the stock markets react poorly to the news. On the other hand, if the report indicates employment sector strength, we could see mortgage rates spike higher Friday morning.

The second report of the day will be September's Factory Orders data. This report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show a 4.5% increase in new orders from August's level. A smaller than forecasted increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a larger than expected rise is bad news and could contribute to higher mortgage pricing since it would indicate economic strength. It is worth noting though, that the Employment report is much more important to the financial and mortgage markets than this data is.

Overall, the single most important day is likely to be Thursday or Friday. In addition to the economic reports, I believe stocks will experience volatility that will also impact bond trading. The key to the week will be Friday's employment numbers, but any significant swings in the stock markets may also influence whether mortgage rates close the week higher or lower than Monday morning's levels.

Rental Property As Retirement Income

Is now a good time to invest in property for passive income when you retire?  And is it even a good idea for you?

Look before you leap

The Chicago Tribune had an interesting analysisback in May that counseled that loan requirements have changed dramatically over the last 5 years, and that the investor must have realistic expectations with the focus on long-term rather then flipping.  Purchasing an investment property as a rental can provide you with a steady stream of income.  There are still tax benefits with real estate investments, and you should talk to a professional to find out how it would impact your situation.

Real estate investments also mean that you will be a landlord, and either you need to handle finding tenants and repairs, or you need to hire a management company which will reduce your profits.  But you get to sleep through the night if a pipe bursts or the tenant gets locked out.

How much income?

Rents are set by where you live.  Usually, rents will go up, but the costs involved with owning the rental property will stay fairly flat especially if you choose a fixed rate mortgage.  Some investors clear $200-1000/month for one rental home.

Some landlords will increase rents every year or two, while others increase only when changing tenants.  If your mortgage stays the same, your income will increase over the years.

There will always be people looking for rentals.  If you have a clean home in a safe neighborhood, people will pay to rent it providing you with a passive income stream.

What should I be aware of?

Renters can leave with two weeks notice, and in some cycles, it’s difficult to replace them.  Always keep six months of expenses on hand per property so you’re not caught needing to sell the investment in a down market.

Always hire an inspector to rule out any large repairs such as foundation, roof or structure of the home.

Research monthly costs.

Talk to your Realtor® about comparable home sale prices in that area to have a good understanding of your investment.

Investopedia has a great article on Tips for the Prospective Landlord. One of the best tips is to ensure your leases are legal as this could have a long term impact if you end up with a bad tenant.  Also, the tip to join the Landlord’s Association in your area is helpful as you will learn a lot from seasoned investors.

What should I look for?

Look for a larger property in case you want to renovate or add on.

Single-family homes in a good school district rent more easily.

Look for properties that can generate positive cash flow of at least 6% above costs.

If you’re new to investing, consider purchasing properties close to where you live to keep tabs on the investment even if you use a property management company.  When you’re comfortable, consider looking into purchasing properties where you wish to retire.

 So, to sum up…

Talk to a tax advisor to understand any tax implications rental property will have.  Find a reputable Realtor® and call your mortgage broker to find the best options for you.

To read more about things to look for and how to plan, read The income property: Your late-in-life retirement plan on Yahoo. The more knowledge you  have, the easier the process will be.

Have you purchased an income generating property or are you looking into one?

This Week's Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of four economic reports and two relevant Treasury auctions for the bond market to digest in addition to another FOMC meeting. There is nothing of importance scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but we do have important events to watch every other day. The data scheduled this week ranges from low importance to extremely important so some reports will have a much bigger impact on trading than others. We also need to keep an eye on the stock markets as they can be heavily influential on bond market direction and mortgage rates. In other words, there is a pretty good chance of seeing noticeable movement in mortgage rates several days this week, especially if the major stock indexes rally or post sizable losses.

Wednesday starts the week’s agenda with the release of September's New Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET. This data covers the small percentage of home sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report didn't include and is this week's least important data. It is expected to show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, but regardless of its results I am not expecting it to have a significant impact on mortgage rates Wednesday.

This week's FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins Tuesday and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. There really is no possibility of the Fed changing key short-term interest rates this week. But market participants will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of change in Fed sentiment or possibly further development on recent talk of them issuing certain targets in particular economic readings that would trigger an automatic increase in key short-term interest rates. This would eliminate most of the guessing in the markets of what it will take for the Fed to start raising those rates. The meeting will adjourn at 2:150 PM ET Wednesday, so look for any reaction to the statement to come during afternoon hours.

Early Thursday morning, the Commerce Department will post Durable Goods Orders for September. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. Analysts are currently calling for a jump in new orders of approximately 7.4%. If we see a much larger increase in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. On the other hand, a significantly weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast. Therefore, a small variance from forecasts likely will have little impact on bond trading or mortgage pricing.

The final two economic reports will be released Friday morning, one of which is not only the most important report of the week, but also the most important we see regularly. The preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released early Friday morning. The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and therefore is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Friday's release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for an increase of approximately 1.9% in the GDP, which would mean that the economy grew at a noticeably quicker pace than the 2nd quarter's 1.3%. If this report shows a much smaller increase, I am expecting to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates fall. However, a larger than expected rise could lead to a rally in stocks, bond selling and a sizable increase in mortgage pricing Friday morning.

The week's last report comes just before 10:00 AM ET Friday when the University of Michigan updates their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. Current forecasts show this index remaining nearly unchanged from the preliminary reading of 83.1. This report is moderately important because it helps us measure consumer confidence, which is believed to indicate consumers' willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watch closely.

This week also has Treasury auctions scheduled each day except Friday. The only two that have the potential to influence mortgage rates are Wednesday's 5-year and Thursday's 7-year Note sales. If those sales are met with a strong demand from investors, particularly Thursday's auction, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to improvements to mortgage rates shortly after the results of the sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. But a lackluster investor interest may create selling in the broader bond market and lead to upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Overall, it will likely be a fairly calm early part of the week but very active latter part for the markets and mortgage rates. I believe that the single most important day will probably end up being Friday with the extremely important GDP release in the morning, but anytime there is an FOMC meeting there is a good possibility of seeing the markets move significantly. Monday is likely to be the least important day, but we still could see some movement in rates as the markets prepare for the upcoming week. Accordingly, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

This Week's Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of six economic reports for the markets to digest. Unlike last week, the most important events are scheduled for the first part of the week while the latter part is much lighter. However, due to stock earnings along with the week’s economic news, we could see mortgage rates move several days with a decent possibility of seeing an intra-day revision or two.

The week kicks off with the release of an extremely important piece of economic data early tomorrow morning. September's Retail Sales report that measures consumer spending will be posted at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This data is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Therefore, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop tomorrow. However, stronger than expected sales would fuel optimism about the economy and would likely lead to a stock rally that hurts bonds prices and pushes mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.7% increase in sales. Good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing would be a much smaller increase.

Tuesday has two reports scheduled that may influence mortgage rates. The first is September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.5% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns, pushing bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market because it erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. When inflation is a threat, even down the road, bonds sell for discounted prices that push their yields higher. And since mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, this leads to higher rates for mortgage borrowers.

The second report of the day will be September's Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET, giving us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase in output from August's level, meaning that manufacturing activity rose slightly. A larger than expected increase in production would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates as it would indicate economic strength. A decline in output would be favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates, but the CPI is much more influential to the markets than this report is and will be the focus of trading Tuesday morning.

September's Housing Starts is Wednesday's only release, coming at 8:30 AM ET. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in new home starts between August and September. I believe we need to see a significant surprise in this data for it to have an impact on mortgage rates Wednesday.

Thursday also has only a single monthly report scheduled for release with September’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.2% from August's reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to increase slightly over the next couple of months. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this report is considered to be only moderately important. Therefore, a small increase would not be of much concern to the bond and mortgage markets. Ideally, we would like to see a decline in the index.

The National Association of Realtors will release September's Existing Home Sales data late Friday morning. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. I don't see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts' forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a decline in sales from August to September, meaning the housing sector remained soft. That would be favorable news for the bond market since a weak housing sector makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

Overall, it appears that Monday or Tuesday are the likely candidates for the most important day of the week. In addition to the economic data, there are many companies posting earning reports during the week, including some big names such as Citigroup, IBM and Intel. If the corporate earnings releases are generally weaker than forecasts, stocks may suffer, making bonds more appealing to investors. The end result would likely be an improvement in rates. The flip side though is stronger than expected earnings that drive stocks higher, pushing bond prices lower and mortgage rates upward. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate. 

This Week's Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of four economic reports that are of interest to the mortgage market along with two fairly important Treasury auctions. The week also gets heavy in quarterly earnings releases for companies, which could cause significant movement in the stock markets. The earnings results could affect bond trading as investors move funds into stocks if the reports are good. The other possibility is that earnings would generally disappoint, meaning investors may move funds out of stocks and into bonds as a safe-haven. The latter would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The bond market is closed Monday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The stock markets are open for trading, so their movement is worth watching as a sizable move up or down in the major indexes may influence bond trading and mortgage pricing early Tuesday morning. I suspect many mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow, as will U.S. banks. If anyone is open for business and does post rates tomorrow, you can expect to see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point from Friday's morning pricing due to weakness in bonds late Friday afternoon.

The first report of the week comes at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday afternoon when the Federal Reserve posts its' Beige Book. This report details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region and is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve when determining monetary policy at their FOMC meetings. If it reveals stronger signs of economic growth from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.

Also Wednesday is the first of two important Treasury auctions this week. The sale of 10-year Notes will be held Wednesday while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday. We often see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as the firms participating prepare for them. However, as long as the auctions are met with decent demand from investors, the firms usually buy them back. This tends to help recover any presale losses. But, if the sales are met with a lackluster interest from investors- particularly international buyers, the bond market may move lower after the results are posted and mortgage rates may move higher. Those results will be announced at 1:00 PM each sale day.

August's Trade Balance report will be released early Thursday morning. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but is the week's least important report and likely will have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a $43.8 billion deficit, but it will take a wide variance from forecasts to directly influence mortgage pricing.

The week closes with two reports being posted Friday morning, one of which is very important to the bond market and mortgage rates. That would be September's Producer Price Index (PPI) early Friday morning. This is one of the two very important inflation readings we get each month. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.8% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could raise concerns in the bond market about future inflation and lead to higher mortgage rates Friday. However, weaker than expected readings should result in bond market strength and lower mortgage pricing.

The last report of the week is October's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. Rising confidence means consumers feel better about their own financial and employment situations, meaning they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related date is watched closely. Good news for the bond market would be a sizable decline in consumer confidence, but due to the importance of Friday's other report, I suspect this data will have little impact on mortgage rates. It is expected to show a reading of 78.5, up slightly from September's final of 78.3.

Overall, I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates again this week, but the biggest changes will likely come the latter part of the week. The key economic report is Friday's PPI but the Fed’s Beige Book also has the potential to influence the markets and mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. Therefore, we can label Wednesday or Friday as the most important day of the week. Also worth noting is the active week for corporate earnings that can cause a great deal of volatility in stocks and mortgage rates any day of the week. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

Storing your outdoor items for Winter

Today we have part 2 of our 4 part series on preparing your home for Winter.

Here in Northern California, we can get some pretty strong winds with our rain. To take good care of our patio furniture and our barbecues, we need to prepare and to store them properly so we don’t have to buy new furniture and grills in the Spring.

Barbecues and Grills

We won’t get into the debate over gas versus charcoal (or smokers, for that matter). We’ll save that for the Spring. Whatever you have, let’s get it safe and secure before the big Northern California rains in November.

If you have a portable charcoal kettle or gas grill, you may want to find room in your garage or car port to store it over the winter where it will be protected from rust. If you live in an apartment and have covered parking, you might be able to fit yours in between the wall and where your car bumper normally stops. Don’t use it here, though, as there’s a potential for fire or carbon monoxide poisoning.

To prepare your portable grill:

1. Clean completely. Get some oven cleaner and really spray down the grill part. While it’s doing its job, clean out any ash if charcoal, or clean the burners if you have gas. Throw out lava rocks for a gas grill and plan to buying new ones in the Spring. Grease can get stuck in the rocks which you’re never going to get cleaned out. And clean rocks reduce flare ups which provides a better flavor. Hose off the grill, and enjoy it’s bright shiny look.
2. Dry your grill completely to ensure there’s no rust. If there is rust, use steel wool or a wire brush to get it off, and then look if you need to re-coat the surface. You can polish the surface with a simple paste of baking soda and water.
3. Repair anything needing repairing. Nothing is worse then the first sunny day in April, pulling out the grill, and finding out that you needed to fix a burner.
4. Detach propane tanks if you have a gas grill. Make certain to store them safely in an upright position.
5. Read your manual to see if the manufacturer recommends anything specifically. If you can’t find your manual, many companies now put them online. Usually you can find this in Support.

Now put your grill buddy in a safe place. As we mentioned, if it can fit in the garage or carport, that’s the best place. If you can’t, look for an area where there’s an overhang to protect it as much as possible. And invest in a good cover. Make sure you tie down the cover so it doesn’t blow away.

If you have a built in grill, or a large island grill, barbecue or smoker, spend just as much time cleaning, reviewing your manual, and use the covers.

Some of you are able to grill almost all year round (Carmel, Monterey, Silicon Valley…). That doesn’t mean you can get out of doing a little cleaning and maintenance twice a year. Your grill will be so happy if you do. Leave a note in the comments where you are and if you can grill, barbecue or smoke all year.

Patio furniture

Some people have sheds for their patio furniture since they don’t want to spare the room in their garage. If you invested good money in chairs, tables, heaters, canopies and outdoor fireplaces, you will want to take care of them for the long term. Similar to grills, the steps are:

1. Clean off the pillows and umbrellas. Then store indoors. Some people like to put the pillows into large garbage bags to prevent dust from accumulating.
2. Clean all the dirt and grime off of the furniture. If you have wood furniture, consider using some wood soap, or a coating of water sealant.
3. Inspect for any repairs needed on all the parts. If you need a new cord on your umbrellas, order them now so you can repair it before you put it away.
4. Stack lightweight chairs on top of one another. If you can store them indoors like a garage, carport or shed, that’s your best bet. Otherwise the additional weight will keep them in place if a strong wind storm starts to blow. Find a cover to go over them to protect the chairs from the elements.
5. Store lightweight tables indoors. Again if this is not possible, put a cover over, and try to store in an overhang or an area where the wind won’t blow the stacks over.
6. Tie down all covers so they don’t blow away.

No matter how you store your outdoor items, make sure you keep your eyes peeled for spiders when you pull them out in the Spring.

When will you hold your final outdoor party before you put everything away for the season?

Here are the other articles in case you missed them:
Part 1: Fall maintenance from top to bottom