Sales In These Categories Rise, Indicating Recovery Is For Real

A retail analyst at NPD Group says they should have known the economy was in trouble in 2009. Sales of underwear were down, signaling a major economic downturn.

* Underwear makers have good news for you. Yearly sales for 2011 jumped 6.6 percent. According to the Underwear Index (championed by Alan Greenspan), the uptick in staples, like boxer shorts, is a sign that consumers are upbeat and not pinching pennies.

* Golf courses had an increase of 21.4 percent in rounds played during 2011. The rise included both public and private courses, meaning that all kinds of golfers were willing to pay. They had a more positive outlook.

* Sit-down restaurant sales rose by 8.7 percent in January 2012 over January 2011. Because more diners chose full-service places, as opposed to fast food, it’s a sign that the economy is back on track.

* Pay-TV sales were up a little in 2011. In spite of options like Netflix and Hulu Plus ($7.99 a month), Americans are still spending $50, $100 or more per month for pay-TV packages.

* Beauty salon sales grew by 5.4 percent over the last two years. In downturns, many customers skimp on hair gels, creams and haircuts. The turnaround is proved by 34 percent of salons saying they have hired more stylists in the past two years.

* Mobile home makers shipped 3,800 units in December 2011, up 30 percent from the month before. A strategist at ConvergEx says strong trailer-park sales may signal stronger overall housing numbers before long.

Interviewed in Time, authorities say the only loser in their survey was the tooth fairy. Per-tooth payouts dropped in 2011, but the non-profit Delta Dental says the tooth fairy is hopeful for improvements this year.

This Week's Market Commentary

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of five important economic reports for the markets to digest. Two of the five are considered to be of very high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates. The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate importance to the markets, but still may influence mortgage pricing.

The Conference Board will start the week's relevant releases by posting their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM Tuesday. This data measures consumer willingness to spend. If the index rises, it indicates that consumers felt better about their personal financial situations and therefore are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. If confidence is sliding, analysts think consumer spending may slow in the near future. The latter is good news for the bond market because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. A decline in the index should boost bond prices and push mortgage rates lower Tuesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 69.0, down slightly from April's 69.2 reading.

Wednesday has nothing scheduled that is expected to affect mortgage rates. The next report will be Thursday’s release of the first of two revisions to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. The second revision to this index comes next month but isn't expected to carry much importance. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 2.2% increase in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect a downward revision to this reading with the consensus being a 1.9% rate of growth. If the revision comes in much stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher because it would mean the economy was stronger than thought last quarter. On the other hand, a much weaker reading could lead to stock selling, a bond rally and lower mortgage rates.

Friday has the remaining three pieces of economic data, including the two highly important ones. April's Personal Income and Outlays data is the least important of the three. It will be posted at 8:30 AM and gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. An increase in income means that consumers have more money available to spend. As we pointed out above, since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy, this data can cause movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a 0.3% increase in income and a 0.3% rise in spending. Weaker readings would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Friday's second report is arguably the single most important report that we see each month. The Labor Department will post May's Employment data at 8:30 AM ET Friday morning. This report gives us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate remain at 8.1% this month with approximately 155,000 jobs added to the economy during the month. A higher than expected unemployment rate and a much smaller number than 155,000 in new payrolls would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger than expected numbers, indicating employment sector strength, may lead to a spike in rates Friday morning.

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index will conclude the week’s data late Friday morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened, pointing towards sector strength. Analysts are expecting to see a 54.0 reading in this month's release, down from April’s 54.8, meaning that sentiment fell during May. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while an unexpected increase could contribute to higher mortgage rates Friday.

Overall, Friday is likely to be the most important day of the week as it brings us the two most important reports on the agenda and three overall. If they give us weaker than expected results, we could close the week with lower mortgage rates than Tuesday's opening levels. However, if we see stronger than expected readings in those two releases, I expect mortgage rates to move higher on the week. But that is very much dependent on seeing a relatively calm week in stocks. As we have seen recently, stock market volatility can heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates and significantly minimize the impact that these economic reports normally have on rates. Accordingly, it would be wise to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

Consumer Confidence Is Rising

Consumer confidence at the end of March reached the second-highest level in four years.

Lower interest rates on mortgages and credit cards were one reason for the more positive view. According to a USA Today analysis, American households paid an average of $8,731 for mortgage interest in 2007. For 2011, the average interest was $5,633.

Low interest rates mean more cash in your pocket.

Three-fourths of the interest savings were from falling interest rates, the rest were from debt reduction.

For the three-week period ending on March 25, The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed more than 30 percent of households said they had a favorable view of the buying climate. It was the longest stretch since early 2008.

The economic gain for borrowers is greater than other stimulus efforts or even high gas prices. A cut in the Social Security payroll tax, for example, saves households an average of about $70 a month.

Job and income growth are providing consumers with the means to withstand higher fuel costs and are the basis for sales of cars and other expensive items. Economists at the National Automobile Association say even if people aren’t paying attention to their falling interest rates, the money builds up in their checking accounts and especially benefits big-ticket items like cars.

The favorable reduction in household debt shows that many responsible Americans are using the extra cash to pay down credit card balances, which is always a wise move.

Consumer spending is a big factor in U.S. economic growth, so if you need a car or a fridge and can afford it, you’ll perk the economy if you go ahead and buy it.

This Week’s Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of four important economic reports in addition to two Treasury auctions that may influence rates. Only one of the reports is considered to be of fairly high importance to the bond market and mortgage pricing.

The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate or low importance and will likely not heavily influence mortgage rates. There is nothing of importance scheduled for release tomorrow, so expect the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing.

The National Association of Realtors will give us their Existing Home Sales report late Tuesday morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S. during April, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. This type of data is relevant because a weakening housing sector makes a broader economic recovery less likely. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in home sales between March and April. Ideally, the bond market would prefer to see a decline, indicating further housing sector weakness. A large increase in sales could lead to bond weakness and a small increase in mortgage rates Tuesday morning.

April’s New Home Sales report is the sister report of the Existing Home Sales and will be released late Wednesday morning. It gives us a similar measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but tracks a much smaller portion of housing sales than Tuesday’s report does. Actually, it is the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing. It is expected to show gains in sales from March’s level, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector also strengthened last month.

Thursday has the week’s most important report with April’s Durable Goods Orders being posted. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. These are items made with an expected life span of three or more years. It is currently expected to show an increase in new orders of approximately 0.3%, indicating the manufacturing sector remained fairly flat last month. That would be relatively good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data is known to be quite volatile. Therefore, a small variance from forecasts would likely have little impact on Thursday’s mortgage rates.

The last relevant data of the week will come from the University of Michigan, who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May late Friday morning. This type of data is watched closely because when consumers are feeling more confident about their own financial situations, they are more likely to make a large purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, rising confidence and the higher levels of spending that usually follow, are considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. Friday’s report is expected to show a small decline from this month’s preliminary reading of 77.8. A reading above 77.5 would be considered negative for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Overall, I think we have a moderately busy week ahead of us. The big report of the week is the Durable Goods Orders, making Thursday the best candidate for most active day for mortgage rates. Tuesday’s housing report may also cause movement in rates if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are worth noting. The 5-year Note sale is Wednesday and the 7-year Note auction will be held Thursday. Both may also influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors.

Also worth noting is the fact that the bond market will close early Friday afternoon ahead of next Monday’s Memorial Day holiday. With all this, there is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week- especially if there is more volatility in the stock markets. Accordingly, please proceed extremely cautiously if still floating an interest rate.

Start Building Wealth Through Real Estate

If you’ve been thinking about buying a home or rental property, experts at bankrate.com say low prices combined with low interest rates make this a good time to do it.

As one real-estate specialist puts it, “When money is cheap to borrow and houses are cheap to buy, it’s absolutely the best time to invest.”

While the timing is right, these tips can help investors take advantage of what might be the opportunity of a lifetime, say Bankrate advisors.

• Find a rental property in your area. Your real estate agent can help identify good properties, will work with you and share investment knowledge. Or, if you have the time and inclination, you can search foreclosure listings, read the newspaper ads, walk or drive through neighborhoods, and seek recommendations from friends.
• Look for the right location. Properties in highly populated areas can draw from a larger pool of potential renters. Renters are generally looking for properties with multiple bedrooms and bathrooms that are located in low crime areas. They want to feel safe and send their kids to good schools.
• At MSN Money, they ask, “Why buy a rental?” Their answer: “To get richer.” In today’s market, you may be able to buy a property for less than its actual value. Over time, you will realize most or all of that value.
• In the meantime, you can generate a reliable cash flow from the property.
• Because of depreciation and other deductions, you won’t pay federal or state tax on the income.
• Some prospective investors worry about the work involved in owning a rental house or duplex. You won’t have to worry about it if you hire a property manager to do the job for you. You’ll still have income.

This Week’s Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of five pieces of relevant economic news in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Two of the economic reports are considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates, while the others carry enough significance to influence mortgage rates if they show a wide variance from forecasts.

The first important piece of data this week is April’s Retail Sales, which will be released at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. It is an extremely important report for the financial markets since it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in sales from March to April.

A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Tuesday morning as it would signal that economic activity may not be as strong as thought. However, a larger increase could fuel fears of economic growth that would lead to stock buying and bond selling that would push mortgage rates higher.

April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also be posted at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. It is similar to last week’s PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. These results will be watched closely and could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing if they show any surprises. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two readings because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving analysts a more stable and reliable measurement of inflation.

Wednesday has three reports scheduled, starting with April’s Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. This data measures housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking newly issued permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show an increase in new starts from March’s readings. Since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The second report of the day is April’s Industrial Production at 9:15 AM ET. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is growing. A smaller than expected increase in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This report is just a bit more important to the markets as the earlier housing report, so they both will likely need to show unexpected strength or weakness for them to cause movement in mortgage rates.

Wednesday’s third release is the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy and economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about the Fed being able to wait until late 2014 to make a move to either boost economic activity or slow growth to ease inflation concerns. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading Wednesday.

The last data of the week comes late Thursday morning with the release of April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to strengthen slightly over the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while an increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher Thursday.

Overall, it looks like we may see the most activity Tuesday with the two most important reports of the week scheduled. Wednesday could also be active while Friday is the best candidate for calmest day unless something unexpected happens. However, sizable gains or losses in the major stock indexes could influence bonds and mortgage rates more than a good part of this week’s economic data can. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

Public Records Errors and Real Estate Transactions

A recent Inman News article explains how mistakes in public records can hurt sellers without due diligence. While paperwork isn’t the most glamorous part of selling a home, the article is clear about the dangers of not knowing the legal usable square footage of your home as defined by the public record.

Buyers want to know the actual square footage, not just what is reported by the seller. If the numbers don’t match up, it could cause a problem.

For example, the article hypothesizes that “if the sellers say their house has 3,000 square feet of living space, but the public record reports only 2,300 square feet, the buyers expect an explanation for the discrepancy.”

Many appraisers are now only taking legal public record square footage into account when making their evaluations of a home’s worth.

It would be wise to check that the record on your home is correct, and make adjustments to it if not to prevent any transactions from falling apart over this detail. As the article points out, it can take months for changes to show up in the public record, so it is best to start fixing any mistakes early on.

Read the Inman News article here. Do you know what the public record says about your home?

This Week's Market Commentary

There are only three pieces of relevant economic data scheduled for release this week that may affect mortgage rates, in addition to two important Treasury auctions. The two most important reports will be posted Friday, meaning the markets will have to rely on factors other than economic news for direction most of the week. There is no relevant economic data due until Thursday, so expect the stock markets to be a big influence on bond trading and mortgage rates until then.

The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sale, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.

March's Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early Thursday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a $49.9 billion trade deficit, but it is the least important of this week's data and likely will have little influence on Thursday's mortgage rates.

Friday has the remaining two reports. April's Producer Price Index (PPI) is the first at 8:30 AM ET. It helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond market rally. The overall index is expected to show no change, while the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices has been forecasted to rise 0.2%. A decline in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers because inflation is the number one nemesis for long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds.

The last report of the week is May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend, which relates to consumer spending. If consumers are more confident of their own financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. This report usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets though, because it is not exactly factual data. It is expected to show a reading of 76.2, which would be a small decline from last month's final reading. If it shows a large decline in consumer confidence, bond prices could rise and mortgage rates would move slightly lower because waning confidence means consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. That is assuming the PPI does not give us a significant surprise though. The PPI is much more important to the bond market than the sentiment index is, so look for it to be the biggest influence on Friday's mortgage pricing.

Overall, it likely will be a moderately active week for mortgage rates. Besides the week's economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. The most important day of the week is Friday with the PPI report on the agenda, but Wednesday’s 10-year Note auction could also heavily sway bond trading. It appears we will likely see the most movement in mortgage rates the latter part of the week unless the stock markets post sizable gains or losses the first part.